New Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Battleground State Poll Still Surveying the DNC

We have taken to task the recent collaborative Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Polls for the pro-Democrat nature of their samples (registered voters and too many Democrats). Now they have switched to likely voter polls which is an improvement since those polls are the most accurate but they still have issues with they party ID over-sampling Democrats.

  • In Florida, Obama leads Romney 49 to 46 down from his 6-point lead at the start of August.
  • In Ohio, Obama leads 50 to 44, unchanged since August 1
  • In Wisconsin, Obama leads 49 to 47, down from a 6-point lead in early August.

All of that is well and good for the Romney campaign to be closing the gap, but simply switching from “registered voters” to “likely voters” can have as much as a 4-point impact in favor of Republicans based on the analysis by the New York Times Nate Silver.

Digging even deeper we see the state-by-state the sampling breakdown with a continued pro-Democrat bias:

The Florida party ID was Democrat 34, Republican 28 and Independent 32 or D +6 when the party ID in 2008 was D +3 (Dem 37, Rep 34, Ind 29) and in 2004 it was R +4 (37-41-23).  In 2010 it was dead even (36-36-29). So in a hugely Democrat sample, greater than the Obama “Hope and Change” wave of 2008, Obama only leads by 3 and SENIORS favor Romney by 13-points.  Imagine what those numbers would be if they more fairly weighted the survey.

The Ohio party ID was Democrat 34, Republican 26 and Independent 34 or D +8. In 2008 party ID was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30), in 2004 it was R +5 (35-40-25)  and in 2010 it was dead even (36-36-28). Again, the sampling in Ohio expects Obama’s historic election enthusiasm from 2008 to be repeated in Ohio despite the tectonic shift in the state in 2010 where Republicans took the state house, the governor’s mansion and actually had a ballot vote where 66% of Ohioans wanted a REPEAL of Obamacare.  A repeat of 2008 Dem advantage is not happening.

In Wisconsin the party ID in this survey was Democrat 32, Republican 28, Independent 33 or D +4. In 2008 the party ID split was D +6 (Dem 39-Rep 33-Ind 29) versus 2004 the party ID was R +3 (35-38-27) and in 2010 the split was D +1 (37-26-37). This sampling was the closest to reasonable and still probably over-sampled Democrats. To review, since 2008 Wisconsin has undertaken a political metamorphosis with Republicans gaining controls of every branch of state government in 2010. Additionally, every seat was re-litigated thanks to expensive and contentious recall elections that divided the state, likely hurt the Democrats brand and Republicans still retained control (even the flip of the state Senate has flipped back). Yet, despite the dramatically changing landscape, the fact that Romney is competing in Wisconsin complete with a “plug ‘ play” ground game flipping every Governor Scott Walker recall headquarters to Romney Victory centers the day after the recall, and Wisconsin’s own Paul Ryan is on the ticket the sampling is only slightly fewer self-identified Democrats than 2008.

Based on these results, of the two campaigns, I’d rather be in the position of the  Romeny campaign than the Obama campaign.

3 Trackbacks

  1. […] Battleground Watch Talking only about the states that matter this election year Skip to content About « New Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Battleground State Poll Still Surveying t… […]

  2. […] both Ohio and Virginia but was losing decisively in both polls. We see this in nearly every state poll.  In the ABC/Washington Post national poll on September 11 Romney led Independents by 11-points […]

  3. […] turnout margin by 4-5x the 2008 success. Then a few weeks ago they switched to likely voters which shrunk the over-sampling of Democrats but still had ludicrous party ID margins.  Now, I don’t have the party IDs but when you see […]

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