Obama +2 in Nevada (with a really big caveat) — SurveyUSA

Only a day after we posted the “Democrat Perspective” that Nevada is already in the bag for Obama, The Las Vegas Review Journal publishes a SurveyUSA poll showing the race neck-and-neck.  There were a number of really interesting things in the poll.  The party ID was D +3 which is a fair split between 2008 (D +8) and 2004 (R +4).  The Hispanic vote was 19% of the survey which is 4% higher than the 15% record in 2008, but immigration is a key in the state so plausible. The strange part is Romney polled EVEN among Hispanics in this likely voter poll. The only way that is possible is if the enthusiasm gap is very real (I believe it is) and Romney supporting Hispanics are incredibly fired up.  Despite that, I’m not buying Romney being even among Hispanics until I see it in multiple polls but it is something to watch:

President Barack Obama edges out GOP opponent Mitt Romney 47 percent to 45 percent in a new Nevada poll that shows Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, evenly splitting voters in the battleground state, too.  The first Nevada survey taken since Romney added Ryan as his running mate showed the pick didn’t shake up the presidential race here, but it appeared to further harden the partisan divide that shows Nevadans split on whether to return Obama to the White House or replace him on Nov. 6 with Romney. As a result, Obama continues to run on shaky ground in Nevada, which is economically the nation’s hardest-hit state with unemployment at 12 percent and record home foreclosures and bankruptcies. Obama easily won Nevada by 12 percentage points four years ago but has been struggling to regain traction here.

Ryan impact? Neglible

About 42 percent of likely Nevada voters polled said Romney’s selection of Ryan as his vice presidential pick doesn’t influence their presidential choice. But 28 percent said they’re more likely to vote for Romney with Ryan on the ticket, while 29 percent said they’re more likely to vote now for Obama, who is campaigning in North Las Vegas today and was in Reno on Tuesday. Independents narrowly favored the Ryan selection, with 32 percent saying they’re more likely to vote for Romney with him on the GOP ticket and 25 percent saying they’re more likely to pick Obama. Overall, Romney is leading Obama among independent voters statewide, 44 percent to 39 percent.

Ryan impact on medicare debate?  Evenly split but remember, a draw for Republicans is likely a win in the voting booth  in November:

On the Medicare question, 70 percent of those surveyed said they’re “familiar with Paul Ryan’s thinking on Medicare,” which was not described in the poll question. Asked whether they backed Ryan’s Medicare plan, 48 percent said they supported his ideas, 47 percent said they were opposed and the rest weren’t sure.

This is true of almost all running mates.  However, Ryan most likely sured up any soft support for Romney among the Republicans.

Now for the strange part of the survey, Romney was EVEN among the Hispanics polled:

The new SurveyUSA poll showed Obama and Romney dividing the Hispanic vote 48 percent for the president and 47 percent for the former Massachusetts governor – a result even the pollster questioned. In June, a Latino Decisions poll showed Obama leading Romney among Hispanics, 69 percent to 20 percent. “We were surprised by the Hispanic result, too,” Leve said, adding it’s difficult to accurately survey Latinos. “It raised some eyebrows, but that is a snapshot and that is what we see.”

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