Romney + 3 in Florida — Gravis Marketing

In the run-up to the GOP Convention, the selection of Paul Ryan as running mate and his impressive showing in The Villages seems to have given the Romney campaign a boost in the Sunshine State. Gravis Marketing surveyed 728 likely voters and found Romney leading by 3 points:

On the afternoon of August 20th, 2012, Gravis Marketing conducted a survey of 728 likely voters in the state of Florida. The questions covered preference for a given presidential candidate, the Florida U.S. Senate Race be-tween Connie Mack and Bill Nelson, and Governor Rick Scott’s performance rating. The full list of questions are given on page 5. Overall, Romney and Obama remain in a statistical dead heat, with the August 20th poll giving Romney about a 3% lead (48% to 45%), with a margin of error of about 3.8%.
But the Romney-Ryan ticket leads by 4:
Romney recently announced his Vice Presidential pick,Congressman Paul Ryan. Is Ryan affecting the vote?Well, adding Ryan to the ticket increases Romney’s lead from 48%-45% to 49%-45%. What about adding Hilary Clinton to the V.P. part of the ticket — does she increase Obama’s chances? No, actually adding Clinton to the ticket increases Romney’s take by about half a percent-age point and decreases Obama’s take by about a fifth of a percentage point.
However adding Libertarian Gary Johnson into the race knocks the lead back to 3:
The addition of Gary Johnson into the voting mix could materially affect the outcome of the election, with Johnson taking about 3% of the overall vote, with about 1.7% from Romney and 0.5% from Obama.
NOTE: Giving the poll added credibility is the same survey shows Democrat Senator Bill Nelson leading his Republican challenger Connie Mack IV by 8 points, 46 to 38. The Real Clear Politics average is Nelson by +2.5 lending strong evidence to no Republican over-sampling.

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