New NBC/WSJ Poll Shows Obama +4 Nationally … But Not Really

I’ll make this brief since my focus is the Battleground States and not national polls. Here is the lead from thoroughly biased Neil King:

Heading into next week’s Republican convention, Mitt Romney remains within striking distance of President Barack Obama but faces steep challenges in inducing voters to warm up to him as a candidate, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found. The poll found that Mr. Obama’s lead over Mr. Romney narrowed to 48% to 44%, down 2 percentage points from a month earlier and within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

In the poll, 45% of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats or leaning toward the party, while 39% said they identified with, or were leaning toward, the Republican Party.

Another waste of time poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal.

First, they polled registered voters.  In 2010 registered voter polls over-represented Democrat support by 4 points according to Nate Silver at the New York Times.

Second, the party ID in this poll was Democrats 45 and Republicans 39 or D +6.  In 2008 the Democrat advantage on election day was D +7 and every poll, no matter the state, shows reduced enthusiasm among Democrats — and not marginally (i.e. 1 percentage point).

So according to the Nate Silver calculations on registered voter polls combined with a survey almost certainly over-representing Democrats, the reality is Mitt Romney is probably leading.  But honest polling is not NBC’s nor Neil King’s forte.  To read his write up, you would think Americans view Mitt Romney as the devil incarnate.  But that is why Neil King and NBC news shows have such little credibility. At least it wasn’t the comically absurd D +11 like the last NBC/WSJ poll.

In this overly pro-Democrat poll:

  • 54% disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, highest all year
  • Mitt Romney wins 0 percent of blacks in latest WSJ/NBC News poll
  • Only 31% polled say they’re better off than they were four years ago

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] is the conventional wisdom in the mainstream media, right? It’s not.  Every poll, even biased polls, says the race is no worse than even for Mitt Romney despite the unprecedented avalanche of […]

  2. […] Democrats is 2% below the Democrats 2008 advantage and a notch better than their August survey that sampled 6% more Democrats. In general these national surveys seem to give Obama a 1% lead for every over-sampled Democrat […]

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