Battleground State Unemployment Picture Worsens Across-the-Board

Somehow with Paul Ryan drawing relentlessly overflow crowds, polls showing Romney-Ryan momentum and the economy remaining one of the worst in a century, Obama cheerleaders in the media claim week-after-week that Obama is “winning” the campaign messaging and Romney is struggling.  Today’s medicare fight is one the Romney campaign brought to the forefront (and not without good reason).  Any fears of Romney’s winning argument on the economy  being supplanted by the medicare fight ignores one incontrovertible fact: the bad economy will rear its head no matter what political campaigns and the media may want.  The Monthly jobless claims report is only the starkest example.  Even two weeks after the report we get stories like today’s which provide the state-by-state granularity revealing:

  • Not one Battleground state had an improved jobs picture in July
  • A large majority of the states have horrible unemployment rates (anything above 7.0%)
  • Only media and political spin can believe the President benefits because a state’s individual rate is marginally better than the nightmarish national average of 8.3%

The Labor Department reported Friday that 44 states in all saw their jobless rate go up, with four states seeing no change at all. Only Idaho and Rhode Island — along with Washington, D.C. — saw their rates drop last month. Even though the unemployment rate remains north of 8 percent, some analysts expected Obama to get a boost because many of the swing states that both campaigns are targeting have jobless rates below the national average. Nevada, which continues to have the highest unemployment rate in the country, saw its rate jump back to 12 percent, up from June’s 11.6 percent. New Hampshire (now 5.4 percent), Pennsylvania (7.9 percent) and Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin (7.3 percent) each saw rises of 0.3 percentage points.

Battleground State Breakdown of Unemployment Increase:

Battleground State Unemployment % Monthly Change
Nevada 12.0 +0.4
Michigan 9.0 +0.4
Florida 8.8 +0.2
Colorado 8.3 +0.1
Pennsylvania 7.9 +0.3
Wisconsin 7.3 +0.3
Ohio 7.2 unchanged
Virginia 5.9 +0.2
New Hampshire 5.4 +0.3
Iowa 5.3 +0.2

Note: North Carolina which I do not blog about (and you won’t read about 30 days from now) had an unemployment rate of 9.6% and a monthly increase in unemployment of +0.2 percentage points. Also Ohio’s rate was unchanged but 24k fewer people were employed in Ohio than the prior month.

One Trackback

  1. […] Last month we showed the unemployment rate increasing in every Battleground State (save Ohio where it was flat). Now we have the latest data and the results are still not pretty: […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: