Obama Lead Shrinks from +12 to +6 in Pennsylvania — Franklin & Marshall

The latest from Franklin & Marshall shows Mitt Romney dramatically cutting into President Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania trailing by 6 percentage points 44 – 38. The data underneath shows some weakness for the President on his handling of the economy but the most concerning aspect of the poll for Obama is the top-line number. That President Obama remains so far below the 50% threshold with 15% Undecided in mid-August is a very bad sign.  As the election nears, Undecideds tend to break for the challenger which would be very bad news for Obama.

For President Percent
Barack Obama 44
Mitt Romney 38
Other 3
Undecided 15

Important note: Previously I hotly complained about the voter registration breakdown in the Franklin & Marshall poll which was D: 50, R: 37, I: 12. While I knew the difference between “party registration” and “party ID” I found it unthinkable that a 13% voter registration advantage for the Democrats.  I was wrong. My complaints were due to the Democrat party ID in 2008 was Dem: 44, Rep: 37, Ind: 18 of D +7 — a record year for Democrats, and up from D: 41, R: 39, I: 20 or D +2 in 2004.  My criticism of the party registration in the Franklin & Marshall poll was unfounded.  Democrats in Pennsylvania continue enjoy a party registration advantage exactly as Franklin & Marshall survey.  Maybe more Democrats will cross over in 2012 and maybe reduced Democrat enthusiasm for Obama will keep them home, but as it stands Franklin & Marshall’s methodology is correct.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: