Obama’s Achilles Heel Getting Worse

It is not exactly new news that President Obama’s Achilles heel is the weak economy. This singularly issue, however, absent meaningful improvement will more and more determine the election outcome as November nears.  This was seen earlier today in the Purple Strategies poll where they revealed a crucial nugget for both Obama and Romney down the stretch:

The impact of voters’ perception of the economy on their presidential choice is dramatic. Among those who believe the economy is getting better, 93% support Obama, 4% favor Romney. And among those who say it is getting worse, Romney leads Obama 84% to 7%. Indeed, this question is now more predictive of vote choice than any other question we ask – including partisanship.

Unfortunately for President Obama, today was yet another day of increasingly bad economic data that portends not only a continuation of the current weak economy but very real risks to it getting worse in the coming months:

U.S. stocks fell on Monday after a steep rally in Friday’s session, as investors focused on a weak read on retail sales, the latest data to indicate slowing in the economy. Concerns about how the economy might be impacted by slowing growth and issues in Europe have pressured equities in recent weeks. Many investors remain concerned about the impact economic uncertainty will have on outlooks. Many companies have warned on profits in recent weeks. Negative to positive earnings guidance for the second quarter is 3.3 to 1, the worst since 2008, Thomson Reuters data showed.

The poor retails sales results were only the latest economic releases showing material weakness in the US economy.  Due to the accumulation of weak results, numerous economists across Wall Street lowered expectations for economic growth the quarter just completed:

  • Goldman Sachs lowered GDP expectations to 1.1% from 1.3%
  • JPMorgan to 1.4% from 1.7%
  • Barclays to  1.4% from 1.5%
  • And Macroeconomic Advisers, a favorite of the White House, now thinks the economy grew at just 1.0%

Jimmy Pethokoukis puts together all the data and importantly points out why these recent numbers are such bad news for the coming months:

As I have written previously: “Research from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 48% of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 70% of the time.”

When you tie the first point regarding voter perceptions on the economy determining likely voter preference with the closing point of across the board expectations for a slowing economy, President Barack Obama’s Achilles heel may grow into his fatal flaw.

3 Trackbacks

  1. […] market forces bankrupt you or render you non-consequential.  Maybe that is why the President hates free markets? Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. This entry was written by […]

  2. By Obama’s Achilles Heel « Battleground Watch on September 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm

    […] as data continues to stream in telling a very different story. I blogged about the economy as Obama’s Achilles heel before and today was another stark reminder that his economic policies have failed. Regardless of […]

  3. […] the start of this cycle, there has been no question that Obama’s Achilles heel will be the weak economy looming over any distractions he and the media can create. We’ve blogged about some of the […]

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