What Happens if Obama’s Voters Don’t Show Up?

Over the weeks we have seen many posts identifying the enthusiasm gap among Obama voters.  We saw where Obama made his extra-Constitutional immigration ploy to recapture Hispanic enthusiasm which appears to be back-firing. The President also has problems with the youth vote and also a reversion to enthusiasm norm among African-Americans from 2008 heights.

The USA Today/Gallup survey of registered voters showed Obama with a 2-point lead.  However, within those results, swing state voters maintain an enthusiasm gap that may make all the difference in November:

The June swing-states poll showed 47% of registered voters across the 12 swing states backing President Barack Obama for president and 45% backing the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. However, voters in swing states who support Romney for president are more likely than those backing Obama to say they feel “extremely enthusiastic” about voting — 31% to 23%. The same pattern is seen by party, with 32% of Republicans in the swing states and 25% of Democrats reporting extreme enthusiasm.

The 8-point enthusiasm lead for Romney shrinks to 4-points when aggregating “Extremely Enthusiastic” and “Very Enthusiastic” voters but in a tight election, that may be all the difference Romney needs:

Voter Enthusiasm Extremely Very Total
Barack Obama voters 23% 24% 47%
Mitt Romney voters 31% 20% 51%

The “Extremely Enthusiastic” segment is even more interesting in that these results are a 5-point bump for Romney versus a Spring survey by Gallup/USA Today and a 3-point drop for Obama despite his pandering on HHS mandates, immigration, student loans, and now middle class tax policy.

2 Trackbacks

  1. […] actually asked this question before when discussing the steep drop in voter enthusiasm among Democrats.  When you combine that with the drum beat of stories about Republicans voter […]

  2. […] Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008.” This is why I title some blog posts: “What happens if Obama’s voters don’t show up?” The simple truth is that […]

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