2nd Poll Shows Michigan a Dead Heat

Consistent with the most recent poll from highly respected Michigan polling firm EPIC-MRA where Romney led by +1, Democrat polling firm Foster McCollum White & Associates released a poll with Obama leading by +1 percentage point in Michigan.

Obama leads 47-45 (but really only 1.41 percentage points separate the candidates) with 8% Undecided/Other. From page 10 in the release (that you have to register for and download):

State – Wide Aggregate Results

 –
1783 Respondents MOE +/- 2.32%
Question 1:
 The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?
  • (Barack Obama): 46.89%
  • (Mitt Romney): 45.48%
  • Another candidate): 3.56%
  • (Undecided): 4.07%

Party ID in the poll was D: 41, R: 32, I: 26 or D+11; This is a bit of oversampling of Democrats.  The party breakdown in 2004 was D+5 and in 2008 D+12.  No one expects a similar Democrat turnout like 2008 and most (including the Obama campaign) are expecting something closer to 2004.

4 Trackbacks

  1. […] in Michigan have shown this race a dead heat. First was the EPIC-MRA poll showing Romney +1, then Foster McCollum White & Associates showed Obama +1.  The outlier, of all people, is Scott Rasmussen who released a poll showing Obama […]

  2. […] McCollum previously and identified the group as a Democrat polling firm.  At the time they showed Obama with a 1-point lead in Michigan which was in-line with multiple other polling in Michigan.  Today’s poll, however, is an […]

  3. […] enthusiasm and now it is translating in the polls.  If the prior Foster McCollum poll in Michigan President Obama led by 1-point, but today’s survey gives Governor Romney a 4-point lead following the selection of Paul […]

  4. […] previously and identified the group as a Democrat polling firm.  At the time they showed Obama with a 1-point lead in Michigan which was in-line with multiple other polling in Michigan.  Today’s poll, however, […]

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